Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Crystal Ball Time

I'm pretty sure it would be both miserable and risky to have a 1-day investment time horizon. If my holding period were from now til the close today, I'd have to make a big bet on the short side.

I was just thinking some more about what Bernanke and his boys are cooking up in their 2-day meeting. My guess is nothing. On top of that, I can't imagine what they could say to cheer the equity markets. The Fed can't fix oil prices or other commodity prices, they can't fix housing, can't give us a presidential candidate who knows the difference between an income statement and a balance sheet. They could help the dollar but that would probably require raising rates.

Futures are up a little as of 6:30 a.m. which is a terrible setup if I'm right. If the market trades up this morning and the Fed statement is a lead balloon, it could be a very messy afternoon.

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