Citigroup strategist Tobias Levkovich published a report this week discussing the predictability of returns across assets classes.
In the report he looks at a normal distribution (it is normal or looks like it) of S&P 500 annual returns over the last 207 years. He concludes among other thins that there is a greater than 99.5% chance that the S&P 500 will not be down more than 40% in any given year. The S&P is down 37% YTD.
Maybe the Phillies winning the 2008 World Series was the outlier event this year and the market is done going down. Maybe.