Tuesday, October 21, 2008

You Don't Know Either

Even though this market has been very very difficult for some time now, there is still no shortage of opinions on where stocks will or need to go in the short and intermediate term.

Lots of traditional chartists are of the opinion that we need to chop around the bottom and retest the lows a couple of times before making a sustained move higher, but they might say that not knowing anything more than the fact that stocks came down a lot in a hurry to multi-year lows.

The chart above looks to me as if there is room for a big rally that wouldn't necessarily change anything in the technical picture. If the market's job is to cause the most pain for the most people, a 30 - 50% rally right here and then a retest of the lows would make a lot of pros and amateurs look for an open window.

This is not a prediction. Just sayin'. As a matter of fact, I think earnings for the next 2 or 3 quarters are going to be terrible so I can't get there from here.

No comments: