Saturday, November 8, 2008

Interesting Test

Ben Reitzes is the best computer hardware analyst in the world. He's now writing research at Barclay's since Lehman pulled the chute.

I haven't seen the report but Eric Savitz at Barron's online details Ben's estimate cuts on Apple - apparently all driven by economic weakness.

Ben is modeling iPhone units down big sequentially in the December quarter (5 million units vs. 6.2 in the September quarter). Down sequentially in the December quarter for any consumer-related product is bad, recession or not. Especially a hot one. Ben is also modeling down earnings for fiscal 2009. Ugh.

If earnings are down, it will be interesting to see whether the multiple gets crushed. If it does the stock probably won't work for a while. It's also possible that investors desperate for growth will look through the next few quarters.

Of course, earnings might not be down. Apple has been delivering for a while now.

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