Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Oil and China II

Oil is below $59/barrel, shrugging off last weekend's news of the massive China stimulus package, which was generally viewed as positive for crude.

Vibrant growth in China probably is the biggest source for incremental growth of demand for any commodity. The price of crude is telling a different story. Take your pick:

  • The market doesn't believe the size of the stimulus, or the time period in which it will be implemented
  • The market believes that this is not new spending, but a reiteration of prior plans
  • The global recession will be so deep it won't matter

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