Tuesday, November 18, 2008

This May Be a Big Deal

It probably is.

The Financial Times is reporting that John Paulson, the guy who is generally accepted to have made the biggest killing betting against the subprime credit market, is moving to the other side of the boat, going long distressed mortgages.

"According to Alpha Magazine, Mr Paulson made $3.7bn in 2007, reflecting the success of his strategy – begun in 2006 – of betting on a collapse of the subprime mortgage market. At the end of the third quarter of this year, his funds were up 15-25 per cent. His funds also made profits in October, his investors say."

That is fantastic. He is absolutely killing it. This next party is a little fishy, though:

"Mr Paulson, who has $36bn under management, was scheduled to hold a dinner and wine-tasting at New York’s Metropolitan Club on Monday night so that he could brief his investors on his plans."

If you run a $36 billion fund and have just embarked on a change in strategy, do you hold a cocktail party to tell people about it? I doubt this is playing out as described.

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