Thursday, February 12, 2009

Whither the Market?

That is a chart of the probability according to InTrade bettors that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will trade below the November 20 low this year.

It would be interesting to bet that it won't given the evidence stacking up that the economy is still getting worse. Oil is back down to $35, the economy is losing half a million jobs per month, the government stimulus and stability plans are being roundly jeered. Since lots of stocks are cheap and I'm not a fan of putting trough multiples on trough earnings, I'm not making that bet but you certainly can.

It's crazy windy outside like my house is going to blow down. What are the odds of that?


Anonymous said...

The beauty of this post is the last sentence. Talk about the price of oil and then mention how windy it is outside. this is blogging!

Anonymous said...

The answer is, as always, 1 in 2.