Wednesday, April 1, 2009

I hope you enjoyed it

I didn't.

The first quarter is over. The S&P 500 was down 11% and change, which isn't the end of the world. Good thing too because it felt like the world was going to end right up until early March.

Where from here? Case Shiller data for housing prices was weak again yesterday but not a disaster. Earnings reports for the March quarter begin next week. Assuming there re no new negative macro shocks in this quarter, earnings seasons could go three ways:
  • Earnings are worse than expected and stocks go down. Look for new lows ahead
  • Earnings are better than expected and stocks rally. Up is good in that case
  • Earnings are worse than expected and stocks rally. Do you feel lucky punk? That would be an interesting spot to make some big bets

Has anything of note come out of this G20 meeting yet? I haven't seen it if it has.

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