Friday, July 24, 2009

Microsoft Down 9%

I don't know whether Microsoft is a growth cyclical or just a cyclical. I don't know why the analysts couldn't come within a billion dollars of getting Microsoft's revenues right this past quarter.

What I do know, or think I know, is that if you want to own it you might as well buy it in the next few weeks. What can go right?

  • Windows 7 might be a real product cycle, unlike Vista which was a bust
  • The installed base of corporate PCs is very old. A replacement cycle should kick in in a better economy
  • Hiring will be going up and not down at some point, and those hired will use PCs, not manufacturing equipment
  • Microsoft could actually use their balance sheet to make some good acquisitions

Everybody loved it going into the quarter. Everybody hates it today.

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