I don't know whether Microsoft is a growth cyclical or just a cyclical. I don't know why the analysts couldn't come within a billion dollars of getting Microsoft's revenues right this past quarter.
What I do know, or think I know, is that if you want to own it you might as well buy it in the next few weeks. What can go right?
- Windows 7 might be a real product cycle, unlike Vista which was a bust
- The installed base of corporate PCs is very old. A replacement cycle should kick in in a better economy
- Hiring will be going up and not down at some point, and those hired will use PCs, not manufacturing equipment
- Microsoft could actually use their balance sheet to make some good acquisitions
Everybody loved it going into the quarter. Everybody hates it today.