Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Microsoft, Yahoo, Snoozer

I know I should quit talking about Microsoft/Yahoo but I defy you to find a big, interesting story in tech which has taken a less interesting turn than this one. It as been going on forever and is almost guaranteed to either never end or end with a whimper. The rumored deal should provide Google an excellent, ironic opportunity to gain some share during the transition.

Microsoft should be embarrassed that they are spending millions marketing their new search engine Bing, which they claim is great of course, but still feel the imperative to partner with Yahoo in search advertising.


One in eight swine flu fatalities are pregnant women, which is quite a troublng stat.


Casino operator Wynn Resorts filed last night for a Hong Kong IPO for its Macau property. Gaming expert and efriend SkiSteve, who also happens to be tight with Waco, tells me that this is good news, even as his confidence in the name had been waning into earnings later this week. I'm no expert on gaming stocks but if they had a good quarter in this environment, that's a 2-outer and they should proceed immediately to the craps table.

If the IPO window is open for any gaming stock, that is good news for this market.


Anonymous said...

skisteve here,
cautious on a daily basis might be more accurate. lol.
well, i was not waning on the prospects of wynn long term (just as the short term trade at that time), they are the best run casino company out there and they are not going away. it was more the sector in general at the time potentially dragging down the stock at earnings time. so much for that threat.

wynn -best run, great prospects in macau which is a major driver in this industry. just opened a new casino there as things start recovering. growth in vegas is fine but not the main factor to consider in casinos these days outside of stabilizing and being profitable again soon. macau is the vegas of asia and its taking off and will grow the bottom lines much faster than vegas casinos. the world is a changin'.

mgm- cheapest purely on valuation but still sketchy. biggest risk reward potential if you like rolling dice, pun intended. i prefer table games of skill lol. they beat revenues though and that partly powered the sector this past week. signs of hope are underrated imo.
they have a macau presence too but not enough since its a partnership. they are laying growth hopes on the city center project in vegas which is what almost took them down before Dubai World saved them...again. their existing portfolio is impressive though. will they have to sell an asset this quarter or not? that is my question, after that they should be fine. it SEEMS they have past the death bed but one cant totally be sure yet. their 1.5 debt ratio is freightening at this point.
obviously, they will be joining the macau party once they are financially able to do so, (more debt, oh great. obv will ipo in hong kong eventually too if wynns and lvs's go well.)
they arent that stupid! then again, maybe they are stupid since starting a multibillion vegas project at the top end of a real estate market was pretty stupid lol. (even ivana trump knew to sell the plot of land she bought in vegas for a casino and made a very nice profit at the top because she saw it coming.) doesnt anyone there pay attention to trends? i wouldnt touch them except for a daytrade momentum play when they have one of those good news reports that tend to make them pop big when positive. show me the positive first! then sell for gains. if you have the stomach for that kind of thing obviously. doesnt seem worth the risk to me with the other great options.

lvs- lowered their debt interest rate in HALF and that will be huge in a recovery. they were well over 5% i think, near 6 and now they are in the 2-2.6 range i believe. what an advantage going forward.
asset wise they have the best long term prospects due to macau and other worldwide properties, also filing an ipo in hong kong. owning them and wynn are the route to play since they seem to be past any BK potential. they own the worlds largest casino in macau (97% occupancy), worlds 2nd largest BUILDING btw. they have TWO huge casinos there actually. they may as well have opened the equivalent of 4+ vegas casinos with the gaming revenues macau generates (or will get back to generating, traffic has increased there more than twice as much as vegas has so far, expect that trend to continue.)
debt was originally est to be paid off in 5 years from opening a few years ago but thats fallen off in recession obv. imagine paying off a 2 billion project in 5 years? unbelievable.

pretty sure Sandy wants to carry less debt after going through losing billions of personal value.

wouldnt you if given a second chance at life? cash is king now, debt is out. he is a smart businessman who will adapt.

partial retracements for the win! wynn was around 173 2 years ago with far less revenues than they will have coming in soon with a recovery.
lvs was around 145 with far less revenues than what will be coming eventually and twice the debt payments.
mgm was around $99, meh. it doesnt take a genius to see some retracement will give you a nice pop. they will be dragged up with a market recovery regardless.

Anonymous said...

damn that guy talks alot. shut up steve!