Summer Fun

• If companies continue to report better than expected earnings and everybody is on vacation, does it still count?
• The risk appetite in this market has got to be back, if CIT was able to find a cohort to give it $3 billion
• Oil was below $60 again. Now it's almost back to $65. Confusing
• If I was Tom Watson, I'd feel good today, not bad. He almost made history at the British Open and set an example for athletes of all ages
• India gives the U.S., Hillary Clinton and everyone else a big no thanks on carbon emission control

Futures are higher by a little on continued earnings optimism. As numbers come in better expectations continue to move up. Enjoy the tightrope.

Intel Earnings

Much better than expected - revenues and margins. Very positive for tech.

However...

Intel is not the tail that wags the dog. It's the dog in tech hardware with the biggest tail (and longest lead times) so it's a big deal when it's better or worse than real expectations.

It is also, however, very good at being cyclical. I'm still willing to bet that Intel's good results point definitively to a cyclical recovery in tech hardware, and are not necessarily a harbinger of global demand recovery. Might be happening but I wouldn't look to Intel for proof.

In general, you can buy Intel when global supply is recovering. It doesn't have as much to do with demand. Just a positive indicator and not even always that.

Drives, memory and flat panels should rip tomorrow.

I write bad today, I know.