Wednesday, December 3, 2008

A Tale of Two Suspensions

The New York Giants announced that they are suspending Plaxico Burress indefinitely - at a minimum for the rest of the season and the playoffs - for taking a concealed weapon into a NYC nightclubs and shooting himself in the leg with it. So far there's no word from the NFL brass on any similar punishment.

The NHL yesterday suspended Dallas Stars player Sean Avery indefinitely for making the following comments to reporters:

"I'm just going to say one thing. I'm really happy to be back in Calgary; I love Canada," the Ontario native said. "I just want to comment on how it's become like a common thing in the NHL for guys to fall in love with my sloppy seconds. I don't know what that's about, but enjoy the game tonight."

Crude, sure, but an indefinite suspension?

One Good Reason to Collect Quotes

Here's a great one.

Howard Lindzon has a witty and insightful blog, and he's Canadian. In questioning the wisdom of betting on Microsoft if you are in fact betting on CEO Ballmer, he writes:

$500 fully subsidized with a plan! I said that is the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn’t appeal to business customers because it doesn’t have a keyboard, which makes it not a very good email machine…. Right now we’re selling millions and millions and millions of phones a year, Apple is selling zero phones a year. In six months, they’ll have the most expensive phone by far ever in the marketplace and let’s see…what’s the expression? Let’s see how the competition goes.”
–Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer on the iPhone, January 2007


Live and learn.

[G]RIMM Reality


Tired of the beating that it has been getting from Apple, RIMM invented an iPhone and the love fest has been fully on for the last week or so. The amps go to 11 and all that.
Last night RIMM took down numbers for the November quarter, blaming everything in sight.
I like Blackberries, and the stock has already backed off from $147 to $37, and probably goes lower today. This economy is awful and nobody is immune.



Hurry Up Congress

The Story So Far

Two weeks ago, the Chiefs of the big three auto makers went to D.C. and asked the Congressional Committee on Grandstanding and Giving Out Money for $25 billion. While the car companies employ lots of voters and retiree voters, they went to Washington with no plan. They got no money.

They went back yesterday with plans for cuts, and asked for $28 - 38 billion.

If the government doesn't hurry up and give them some dough, the price tag could get up to $100 billion by Obama's inauguration.

How's That House Working Out For You?



U.S. housing prices are down over 20% from the 2007 peak. All of the 20 markets tracked by the Case Shiller index are down, so while there are regional differences, this is not a regional problem. It is everywhere. You probably already knew that.

Superanalyst Meredith Whitney of Oppenheimer and Merrill Strategist David Rosenberg have both come out in the last week and said that there is anther 15 - 20% downside in prices.

These calls caught my attention because, it feels to me, that an awful lot of people were hoping we are at the bottom, while not explicitly calling one. I read both Whitney's and Rosenberg's notes. Both have one of the qualities that I like least about financial research:

In the short term it is more important that something sound like a good idea than whether it is one.

Add to that the fact that a negative argument almost always sounds more intelligent than a bullish one, and you have a big call. I don't believe that housing prices have bottomed, but making a call as precise as calling for 15 - 20% more downside from here is quite a high wire act.

Getting to Main Street


Would you bank online at Goldman Sachs? From today's WSJ:

"In the latest evidence of how Wall Street is seeking to broaden its sources of funds, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is weighing whether to launch an Internet banking operation, according to people familiar with the situation."

Goldman, like every other highly leveraged financial institution, needs stable deposits to help shore up the balance sheet. Its competitors have been more focused on strategies to buy existing bricks and mortar banks. The $5k in your savings account earning 2% is now very important business.

If you bank online now, switching costs are already pretty high. Since there is rarely a reason to go to the bank itself, your laptop has become the bank. All your payees are already loaded. As long as the software and platform your bank uses is good enough, it is quite a hassle to switch.

Can Goldman attract Main Street deposits without making an acquisition? I wouldn't mind a Goldman Sachs check book but I can't imagine getting one.