Whither the Market?

That is a chart of the probability according to InTrade bettors that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will trade below the November 20 low this year.

It would be interesting to bet that it won't given the evidence stacking up that the economy is still getting worse. Oil is back down to $35, the economy is losing half a million jobs per month, the government stimulus and stability plans are being roundly jeered. Since lots of stocks are cheap and I'm not a fan of putting trough multiples on trough earnings, I'm not making that bet but you certainly can.

It's crazy windy outside like my house is going to blow down. What are the odds of that?

Rohm and Haas

Futures are popping as Dow Chemical steps in and pays up big for Rohm and Haas (ROH), which makes stuff that they sell by the bucket (specialty chemicals and meterials). The deal is all cash and at a 74 percent premium to where ROH closed yesterday. 74%.

M&A is very good for the stock market sentiment-wise, good for equity supply/demand, good for the financials who advise on the deal, just good. This bid feels bubbly, though. Is this a sign of a peak in basic materials.